Hello there. Hope you’re feeling well today.Yesterday we became aware that the UK government had prepared a series of scenarios post Brexit. And of particular note was the one that made all the headlines. “The Doomsday Scenario” as it was headlined.
What this particular scenario stated was that in a matter of weeks if Britain left the EU with the hardest of hard Brexits then there would be empty supermarket shelves and a lack of medicine for the sick. Petrol will also be in short supply. In other words the long forecast jump from the cliff edge would have arrived.
Now personally I don’t think the Doomsday scenario will occur. Partly because the Conservatives have always been a ruthless organisation when they can see electoral defeat on the horizon by doing everything they can to stop it, even if it meant jettisoning their principles. But mainly I can see the old trick that was previously played by companies seeking to reduce staff.
Step One: Threaten 2,000 Job Losses
Step Two: Take in the protests
Step three: Say that there will only be 1,000 Job Losses. People are relieved. Only for them to realise later that although it’s not as bad as the original estimate the situation will still be worse than before.
But if government departments can do these scenarios then so will I. Specifically if this scenario comes true what will be the effect on the causes of independence for Scotland, Wales and the reunification of Ireland?
Well clearly that would be the push that would lead Northern Ireland to the Republic. For no matter what religion you are if you have no food on the table when your near neighbour is stocked up then that really is the final incentive you need.
In Scotland too. The idea that Westminster knows best will finally be laid to rest. There could be no clear argument for keeping with the Union and so they would go their own way.
Which leaves Wales. And no matter how apathetic politically the majority of the people are, no matter as I’ve said before that they are too nice a people that consequentially allow liberties to be taken against them, if the Doomsday scenario is proved accurate people will be moved to seek political alternatives outside the status quo. And the only credible alternative would be independence. Then Wales could sought out the mess with Wales and no Westminster in mind.
There is an irony here. For no nationalist actually would seek independence under these circumstances. Simply because of the agonies families will face as the scenario plays out. But that’s no reason why nationalist parties (including Plaid Cymru) shouldn’t prepare for it.
Until the next time.