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Via ".@eenderinwales"

Hello there. Hope you’re feeling well today.At time of writing the Labour party has been hit by eight MPs who have left the party through issues of anti-semitism and the attitude towards the long time Brexit of the soul that a hard Brexit will bring. The Conservative party has currently lost three MPs because of Brexit and the party has gone too right wing (who knew?).

I won’t bother going through their arguments as that’s been distributed far and wide and I’d be boring you if I repeated them. I will say though that my gut instinct is that they won’t be successful if only because I’m old enough to remember the SDP and whatever you think about their politics the original defectors “the gang of four” were people with stature. For the most part you look at these recent people who have moved and say “who?”

But let’s say I’m wrong. Let’s say they have “momentum” what then?

Well I’d argue that essentially this whole movement is an “English middle class” thing and that the people who would vote for them (if they were a party….they’re not yet) would be that cliched “Middle England” voter. What the Independent Group would miss is the fact that with devolution the real independence groups, Plaid Cymru and especially the SNP are more powerful than they were at the time of the SDP.

So you see the Nationalist option is there. And if the only alternatives to the disillusioned Scottish/Welsh Labour/Tory party voter is a sort of LibDem on the cheap then who else is there but the Nationalists to offer an alternative future to the electorate. Both Plaid and the SNP could mine that seam. People who would not vote Tory but cannot see the point of a party that cannot even control itself would look at the Nationalist parties as both unified and with policies that would be to their point of view.

The possibilities for the Nationalist parties profiting from this situation is clearly there. After all they actually represent a unified front in contrast to the shambles that are the Unionist parties in Westminster.

Irony a go go.

Until the next time.